Back to the articles list | Back to browse issues page

XML Print

Predictors of the first marriage longevity of divorced women with children
Mahsa Saadati
Department of Statistical Methods and Demographic Modelling, National Institute for Population Research, Tehran, Iran , mahsa.saadati@gmail.com
Abstract:   (231 Views)

Background: Divorce, as an important social harm, is associated with anxiety, fear, and feelings of helplessness and loneliness, leading to changes in behavior, financial status, and lifestyle, has always been the focus of investigators and policymakers. Since women are more affected by divorce than men, and children also play a decisive role in divorce decisions, the purpose of this article was to study the marital durability of women with children based on selected covariates.
Methods: The current study is a secondary analysis of the divorce survey data conducted by the National Organization for Civil Registration in 2016-2017. Information was collected through questionnaires from 756 women who had filed for divorce at divorce registration offices. An unshared frailty survival model was applied for analyzing this data using SAS software.
Results: In this study, 29.5%, 52.9%, and 11.8% of women had 1, 2, and 3 or more children, and the first marriage longevity (FML) medians among these women were 150.45, 221.13, and 343.20 months, respectively. An unshared Gamma frailty Weibull model was selected as the final model for analyzing the data. The variables of the human development index (AF=0.312), women’s and their spouses’ marriage age (AF=0.985, 0.992), the first child’s age (AF=0.938), educational years (AF=1.121), number of children (AF=1.03), number of spouse's siblings (AF=1.018), father's survival status (AF=0.963), and child’s custody status (AF=1.093) were found to significantly affect the FML of these women.
Conclusion: Based on the results, children can play positive or negative roles in women’s divorce; as the number of children increased, women’s FML also increased. On the other hand, as the age of women’s first child increased, the divorce risk also increased.
 

Keywords: First Marriage Longevity, Child, Women, Frailty Survival Models
     
Type of Article: Original article | Subject: Bio-statistics
Received: 2025/04/6 | Accepted: 2025/10/1
References
1. Moshfegh M, Mahmoudi MJ, Bahmani S (2022). The sense of assurance in the stability and endurance of marital life and its connection to the desire for childbearing. Popul Q. 2021;(113-114):15–38. [View at Publisher]
2. Winkler-Dworak M, Beaujouan E, Di Giulio P, Spielauer M. :union: instability and fertility: A micro simulation model for Italy and Great Britain .Vienna Institute of Demography. (VID Working Paper 08/2017). [View at Publisher] [DOI] [Google Scholar]
3. Wang Q, Zhou Q. China's divorce and remarriage rates: trends and regional disparities. J Divorce Remarriage. 2010;51(4):257-67. [View at Publisher] [DOI] [Google Scholar]
4. Sarokhani B. Divorce: A study on understanding its reality and factors. Tehran: University of Tehran Press; 1997.
5. Ghiasi P, Moein L, Rousta L. Investigating the social causes of the tendency toward divorce among women referring to the family court of Shiraz. Journal of Women's Sociology. 2010;1(3):77-103. [View at Publisher] [Google Scholar]
6. Hewitt B. Marriage breakdown in Australia: Social correlates, gender and initiator status. Social Policy Research Paper No. 35. 2008 [View at Publisher] [DOI] [Google Scholar]
7. Bernardi F, Martin-Pastor JI. Divorce risk factors and their variations over time in Spain. Demographic Research. 2011;24(31):771-800. [View at Publisher] [DOI] [Google Scholar]
8. Sadeghi R . Socioeconomic factors affecting youth divorce in Iran. Strategic Studies on Sports and Youthl. 2016;15(32):1-22. [View at Publisher]
9. Yi, Z, Schultz T. P, Deming W, Danan G. Association of Divorce with Socio-Demographic Covariates in China, 1955-1985: Event History Analysis Based on Data Collected in Shanghai, Hebei, and Shaanxi. Demogr Res. 2022;7(11):407-32. [View at Publisher] [DOI] [Google Scholar]
10. Coppola L, Cesare MD. How fertility and :union: stability interact in shaping new family patterns in Italy and Spain. Demogr Res. 2008;18(4):117-44. [View at Publisher] [DOI] [Google Scholar]
11. Mahdavi MS, Saroukhani B, Navabakhsh M, Tamiz, R. Sociological discriminant analysis of Hemphill's index in marriage survival (case study of Tabriz). JISDS. 2013;5(2):55-74. [View at Publisher] [Google Scholar]
12. Norouzi S, Tamiz R, Naghizadeh S, Mobasseri K, Imani L, Esmaeili P, et al. Marriage survival in new married couples: A competing risks survival analysis. PLoS ONE. 2022;17(8):e0272908. [View at Publisher] [DOI] [PMID] [Google Scholar]
13. Klein JP, Moeschberger ML. Survival analysis: techniques for censored and truncated data. 2nd ed. New York: Springer; 2006. [View at Publisher] [Google Scholar]
14. Longstreet P, Brooks S, Gonzalez ES. Internet addiction: When the positive emotions are not so positive. Technol Soc. 2019;57:76-85. [View at Publisher] [DOI] [Google Scholar]
15. Valenzuela S, Halpern D, Katz JE. Social network sites, marriage well-being and divorce: Survey and state-level evidence from the United States. Comput Human Behav. 2014;36(1):94-101. [View at Publisher] [DOI] [Google Scholar]
16. Deihoul M, Ahmadi S, Mirfardi A. The relationship between development and divorce in Iran. Soc Work Res. 2016;3(9):180-217. [View at Publisher] [DOI] [Google Scholar]
17. Deldar F, Fallahi MA. Investigating the factors affecting divorce in Iran's provinces with an emphasis on economic factors. Journal of Women and Family's Cultural and Educational. 2016;10(34):135-54. [View at Publisher] [Google Scholar]
18. Chaboki E. An intergenerational study of the relationship between attitudes toward divorce and family functions among women in Tehran. Journal of Women and Family Studies. 2013;1:159-85.
19. Imanzadeh V, Moheb N, Abdi R, Honarmand Azimi M. Identification of factors affecting divorce and presenting a model for predicting divorce using decision tree algorithm. Applied Psychological Research Quarterly. 2021;12(2):247-63. [View at Publisher] [DOI] [Google Scholar]
20. Sadeghi R, Zanjari N, Mahmoudiani S. The impact of marriage patterns on marital satisfaction and the tendency toward divorce in Tehran. Journal of Women and Family's Cultural and Social Council. 2018;21(81):7-45. [View at Publisher]
21. Moltfat H, Ahmadi H. A Survey on Factors Affecting Couples Tendency to Divorce in Darab. Journal Of Population Association Of Iran. 2008;3(5):152-68. [View at Publisher] [Google Scholar]
22. Zarean M. Meta-analysis of factors affecting divorce :A review of studies recorded in the last decade. QJCR. 2016;16(61):135-49. [View at Publisher] [Google Scholar]
23. Navabakhsh M, Tamiz R. Investigation and comparison of societal attitudes toward addiction treatment. In: Proceedings of the Second National Conference on Social Issues in Iran. Tehran: Iranian Sociological Association. 2011.
24. Zhian F, Navabinejad S, Azimi Garoosi S. Sexual satisfaction and marital adjustment among consanguineous and nonconsanguineous teaching couples. QJFR. 2015;12(2):27-40. [View at Publisher] [Google Scholar]
25. Steele F, Kallis C, Goldstein H, Joshi H. The Relationship between childbearing and transitions from marriage and cohabitation in Britain. Demography. 2005;42(4):647-73. [View at Publisher] [DOI] [PMID] [Google Scholar]
26. Lyngstad TH, Jalovaara M. A Review of the Antecedents of :union: Dissolution. Demographic Research. 2010;23:257-92. [View at Publisher] [DOI] [Google Scholar]
27. Rezazadeh SM, Bahrami Ehsan H, Fadel M, Fallah M. Investigating contextual factors and causes affecting divorce: An exploratory analysis (2018). Psychological Sciences. 2018;17(71):65-74. [View at Publisher]
Add your comments about this article : Your username or Email:
CAPTCHA
Send email to the article author

Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

© 2025 CC BY-NC 4.0 | Jorjani Biomedicine Journal

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb